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A survey of 1,012 Israeli adults (Jewish and Arab citizens) was conducted in September 2024 by Multicultural Insights and PORI. Using face-to-face interviews and random sampling methods, the study examined how the October 7, 2023 events and ongoing conflict affect Israelis’ views on emigration, the conflict’s future, and Israel’s prospects. The sample was designed to be representative based on 2022 Census data.
When asked about their predictions for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 10 years from now, respondents showed a wide range of opinions. The largest group, 39%, believes the situation will remain the same as today. Other scenarios were considered to be less likely by respondents: 21% think there will be two states – Israel and a Palestinian State; 21% believe Israel will annex the West Bank without giving citizenship rights to West Bank Palestinian residents; only 5% think there will be one state with equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians
Figure 5. Predicted conflict scenarios, overall.
The opinion that status quo will be preserved is particularly pronounced among older age groups, with 45% of those 65 and older holding this view compared to 34% of 25- to 34-year-olds.
Figure 6. Prevalence of the opinion that situation will stay the same by age.
Jewish respondents were more likely to believe the situation will remain the same (41%) compared to Arab respondents (24%). Arab respondents mention, in higher rates, a two-state solution (34% vs. 19% among Jews) and a one state solution (13% vs. 3% among Jews).
Figure 7. Predictions about conflict resolution by ethnicity.
Aside from the most frequent projection (situation remaining the same), the most prevalent answer among secular Jews is a two-state solution, while among traditional, orthodox and ultra-orthodox Jews it is annexation of the West Bank.
Younger respondents (18-24 at 28% and 25-34 at 29%) were more likely to believe Israel will annex the West Bank without giving citizenship rights, compared to older groups (16-20%).
Figure 8. Prevalence of the opinion that Israel will annex West Bank without giving its residents citizenship rights by age
The attitude towards the two-state solution varied along the ethnic lines with 19% of Jewish and 34% of Arab respondents evaluating it as a likely outcome. Those with Master /Ph.D. were significantly more likely to believe in a two-state solution (32%) compared to other education levels (19-22%).
Figure 9. Prevalence of the opinion that two states solution will be implemented by education.
Predictions regarding the future of the conflict differed between political groups. Forty-two percent of those who supported the coalition during the last elections believe that the situation will remain the same, while 31% projected annexation of the West Bank without granting citizenship to Palestinian residents. Opposition supporters were also divided in their predictions, with 35% projecting the situation staying the same and one-third predicting a two-state solution. Notably, the idea of a single state with equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians was seen as likely across all groups, never exceeding 7%.
Figure 10. Predictions regarding the conflict by votes in last elections.
We will continue publishing the detailed findings from this survey in the coming weeks. Stay tuned to our webpage, LinkedIn and X channels for more insights into how Israelis view their present circumstances and future prospects.